Thursday, October 24, 2019

Jim Patterson on the 75th Commemoration of Deportation of Crimean Tatars

Jim Patterson with bust of President Woodrow Wilson
Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington D.C., October 2019


On the 75th Anniversary of the Deportation of Crimean Tatars, members of the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR) attended a lecture at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, D. C. The lecture was co-sponsored with the International Committee for Crimea in Washington, D.C. and the American Association of Crimean Tatars, New York.

This year marks the 75th anniversary of the forcible deportation of Crimean Tatars from Crimea by Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin in 1944. Crimean Tatars were not allowed to return to Crimea until the late 1980s. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 presented the community with new challenges. Panelists addressed the history of the deportation and the contemporary issues facing Crimean Tatars.

Speaker included Gulnara Bekirova, Historian and Editor, ATR, Kyiv, Ukraine; and Brian Williams, Professor, Islamic History, University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth. Professor Williams gave background on the deportation and Bekirova spoke about Crimea's current occupation. She repeatedly declined to speak the name Vladimir Putin and described Crimea as "in a bad situation."

The Minsk Agreement, or Minsk I, was an arrangement between Russia, Ukraine, and "separatists," to stop violence over Russia's 2014 invasion. Ceasefire failed to hold and in February 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkle and French President Francoise Hollande, on behalf of the European Union (EU), resumed ceasefire negotiations and their outcome was Minsk II, which excluded Crimea.  Washington was not a party to the negotiation.

Background: In 2014, the EU and Ukraine began relations through the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. The EU wanted, to the consternation of Russia, gradual economic integration and political cooperation with Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine because it said "separatists" wanted to remain in the Russian Federation. In the process, Russia annexed Crimea. Although the Obama administration objected, annexation held. The Obama administration also objected to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but failed to provide any military or diplomatic assistance. 

The presentation was historical with little discussion on the current situation in Crimea or Ukraine. Based on Bekirova's comments and lack of criticism of Russia, I felt she was concerned Russian agents in the audience would report back to the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Washington, D.C. The lecture drew an audience of about 30.

Questioning grew intense at moments, especially over the 1943 Tehran Conference (codename Eureka) between President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet Premier Josef Stalin. In brief, questioners believed FDR and Churchill could have stopped Stalin's brutality against Crimea, but allowed it in order to accomplish other objectives. Interestingly, author Bret Baier's new book, "Three Days at the Brink," is about the Tehran Conference. Questioners saw similarity between Crimea's treatment in WWII and in 2014's annexation, especially US absence.

The Wilson Center, chartered by the U.S. Congress as the living memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum. In tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue, the Center informs actionable ideas for Congress, the administration, and the broader policy community.

-30-

Jim Patterson is a foreign policy analyst, former U.S. diplomat, and a life member of the American Foreign Service Association. He is a member of the Nation Book Critics Circle and Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. His work has appeared in Foreign Service Journal, and others. 

Friday, October 18, 2019

Jim Patterson on Tensions in the Middle East Continue

North Korean President Kim Jong Un galloping on Mount Paektu. 
USAToday

World Series Washington and Tehran

If the Trump administration is planning a military action against Iran, then he may have been wise to avoid a troop buildup on the Syrian border and likely military confrontation with Turkey. We read about a recent U.S. cyber attack against Iran. We also read that Iran's economy has contracted about 10% due to the Trump administration's economic sanctions. Washington has sent 2,000 troops to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to guard against another damaging Iranian drone attack on Aramco's oil facilities.

President Trump considers the Iraq War a mistake even a "disaster." Much like the late French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac, President Trump thinks war is a failure and he worries about war's misery and suffering. It would be a failure of diplomacy for Trump to expand U.S. conflicts to Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Many administration critics, I was not one of them, suggested Trump was eager for a Middle East War. It would show his political base his toughness, the critics said. The Wall Street Journal and others are now suggesting Trump fears a military confrontation anywhere in the world and this could embolden military adventures of Russia, China, North Korea, and others. 

We recently saw North Korea's Chairman Kim manfully riding a galloping white stallion in the country's sacred Mount Paektu, the highest point on the Korean Peninsula. This had the Internet and professional foreign affairs analysts nervously watching Kim for other manful and possibly military actions against South Korea. A conflict with Chairman Kim could be dangerous and Trump's Kim Charm Campaign may be wilting as tensions mount in the Middle East.

Syria's Kurds and Turkey's President Recep Erdogan are a dangerous combination especially since President Trump ordered U.S. troops out of northeastern Syria. I applaud President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for finding a ceasefire between the two sides though it appears not all warring parties got prompt word of it. Shelling persisted after it was announced.

President Trump initially seemed ready to battle Capitol Hill Democrats on why they want security at the Syrian/Turkish border when they refuse to secure the U.S. Southern border with Mexico. That argument evaporated as the conflict intensified between Syrian Kurds and Turkish forces. President Trump also  argued he did not want to initiate another endless Middle East conflict since he campaigned in 2016 on an end to such wars.

President Trump might have also decided to opt out of a border dispute much like State Department officials told Iraqi President Saddam Hussein before he invaded neighboring Kuwait in the summer of 1990. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Canada, the United Kingdom and Bangladesh, liberated Kuwait in February 1991.  History seems to indicate that engaging in border disputes between nations can lead to war and ignoring border disputes can similarly lead to war. Diplomacy is the preferred course to resolve border disputes and wars they might ignite.

The Kurds are a symbolic resistance to Turkey, a NATO ally for nearly 70 years. The U.S. presence in Syria served as something of a stabilizing force. With current chaos, the U.S. has to reconsider its options.

The U.S. has two military bases with known nuclear capabilities and more than 5,000 troops in Turkey. Turkey has strong diplomatic ties with Russia and Iran and it is feared the Kurdish conflict will broaden the reach of a hostile Iran toward Israel. Strategists also fear Turkey and Iran plan to take over Syria's oil fields. Pence and Pompeo have reportedly given assurances of U.S. diplomatic and, if needed, military assistance to Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu should conditions warrant.

President Trump is working very hard to control the Turkey/Syria situation of his making, though with the noblest of intentions. I think we should know soon if Washington needs more troops to the Syrian border with Turkey. Such a move would likely indicate greater Iranian involvement.

We may be where we were in the summer with Trump and Tehran at a stalemate, but not in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. and Iran conflict many expected then may now happen in the fall. The world series may be between Houston and New York with a Washington and Tehran game getting more attention.

-30-
Jim Patterson is a former U.S. diplomat and life member of the American Foreign Service Association.

Jim Patterson on The Arctic Plastic Ocean



October 17, 2019 
Russian Cultural Center
Washington DC

We attended a lecture by Dr. Katya Uryupova, Ph D., marine biologist/oceanographer, photographer and polar guide. Dr. Uryupova spent most of her life in Siberia. She has PhD is marine biology from Moscow State University and earned a master's degree in science communications from University of Salford, UK. She has worked in the Arctic and Antarctic since 2000. Her research projects focus on polar marine ecosystems. Her interests range from general biology to the human impact on the environment to multidisciplinary research. She has focused on marine-protected areas, fisheries management, climate change and environmental monitoring programs. 

Dr. Uryupova participated in a number of research expeditions at different bases in Antarctica. A member of the Russian Geographical Society and the German Society of Polar Research, she is also an Association of Polar Early Career Scientists Council member. She also completed an internship at the Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty in Argentina, and worked for the Smithsonian Institution. 

Dr. Uryupova lectured on marine plastic litter, one of the greatest threats to ocean health globally. She said, plastic pollution is present throughout various Arctic realms from the water column to deep sea fauna. The Arctic Ocean is no longer pristine, she said,"as big pieces of plastic, as well as microplastics, travel the cold ocean." Litter circulates around gyres and makes it easy for sea creatures to digest these toxic materials.  


Dr. Ekaterina Uryupova has collected data from various locations, especially near Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. Svalbard is a Norwegian archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole. It is one of the world’s northernmost inhabited areas, it's known for rugged, remote terrain of glaciers and frozen tundra sheltering polar bears, Svalbard reindeer and Arctic foxes. Franz Joseph Land, a Russian archipelago, is inhabited only by military personnel. It is the northernmost part of Arkhangelsk Oblast.

After Dr. Uryupova's hour-long lecture she presented and discussed twenty of her strikingly original photographs which illustrated the beauty and challenges of conducting scientific research in the Arctic. She answered questions:

1) Is there evidence marine life is changing due to the presence of plastics in the Arctic? She mentioned several interesting ways such as plastic blocking sun from growing kelp which lowered oxygen and reduced/relocated fish populations. 

2) She said there is evidence microplastics pass from the water to sea life and, when consumed, into humans. She said microplastics were in the air and found in snowflakes. She said such microplastics were likely due to incineration of plastics which have heavy metals and may, she suggested, be a source of lung cancer in nonsmokers. 

Dr. Uryupova, fluent in English, presented an excellent scientific program which lasted more than two-hours. 

-30-

James Patterson is a former U.S. diplomat and life member of the American Foreign Service Association. JEPDiplpmat@gmail.com 

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Jim Patterson Reviews Minhwa Art at Korean Cultural Center, Washington DC


October 5, I attended the opening reception for an elegant exhibit on Minhwa: The Beauty of Korean Folk Paintings, at the Korean Cultural Center, Washington DC. The program included lecture, presentation, tour of two rooms with Minhwa canvasses. Finally, attendees were invited to paint a pre-printed figure in minhwa style.

Minhwa: The Beauty of Korean Folk Paintings included an exhibition of works by 19 living artists following in the footsteps of an iconic art tradition, in partnership with the Korean Minhwa Center at Keimyung University. This exhibition introduces minhwa, Korea’s traditional folk paintings that depicted people’s tangible hopes and dreams through unconventional yet artistic expressions. Popularized during the Joseon Dynasty (1392-1897), minhwa are known for their bright colors, humorous depictions, and various virtues embedded symbolically within the imagery.

Minhwa: The Beauty of Korean Folk Paintings comprises 20 paintings by 19 artists from the Keimyung University Korean Minhwa Center who have followed in the footsteps of traditional minhwa painters of previous centuries. Their work spans a variety of iconic styles and subjects, including flora, fauna, landscapes, iconology, and a traditional study complete with books and stationery. Through a broad sampling of minhwa’s major thematic elements, viewers encountered this elegant and cherished art form in all its glory while also glimpsing at the mythology, beliefs and views of the Korean people throughout time.

Minhwa: The Beauty of Korean Folk Paintings continues through October 21, 2019, at the Korean Cultural Center, Washington, D.C.

I highly recommend this exhibit of elegant and beautiful minhwa art. I especially enjoyed the canvasses shaped like bookcases filled with books. 


My hosts and photographer noted my tie's orange was similar to the orange used by the artist in this Minhwa canvass. 


My hosts explained that tigers an magpies were symbolic figures in minhwa art. 



-30-

Jim Patterson is a former U.S. diplomat, life member American Foreign Service Association, member Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations, Associate Member Korean War Veterans Association, member U.S.-Philippines Society, life member Associates of Vietnam Veterans Association, member Sons of the American Legion, Associate member Veterans of Foreign Wars, and a contributor to Foreign Service Journal. 

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Ralph Bunche and Jim Patterson



Jim Patterson at the resting place of Nobel Peace Prize-winning diplomat Dr. Ralph J. Bunche, The Bronx, New York. 



"The world and its peoples being as they are, there is no easy or quick or infallible approach to a secure peace. It is only by patient, persistent, undismayed effort, by trial and error, that peace can be won." -- Ralph Bunche

Jim Patterson, Diplomat: August 7 is the birthday of Dr. Ralph J. Bunche, Ph. D. Dr. Bucnhe served at the U.S. Department of State and he was the first African American to win the Nobel Peace Prize. His wife, Ruth, was from Montgomery, Alabama. 

I first learned of Dr. Bunche after reading about him in the press. He came to Alabama to march with Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. in the historic Selma to Montgomery march in 1965. He worked at the United Nations at the time and he was the highest-ranking U.S. government official to participate in the march. 

My father served with Alabama's National Guard from 1962 to 1967, for the integration of the University of Alabama, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the KKK bombing of Birmingham's 16th Baptist Church, and the Selma to Montgomery march. 

Due to my family connection to the Selma March, I have a role as a reporter in 2015's Academy and Golden Globe award-winning film "Selma." My scenes with actor Tim Roth as Alabama Gov. George C. Wallace were filmed in Atlanta June 2014. I had photos of my dad and Dr. Bunche in my coat pocket. 

Saturday, July 20, 2019

Iran 2019: Donald Trump's Ronald Reagan Moment by Jim Patterson

Ambassador Bruce Laingen (1922-2019), the senior US diplomat at US Embassy Tehran 1979 when Iranian "students" seized the Embassy and held Americans, including Laingen, hostage 444 days. I was honored to have known him and to have learned from his experience. 



Donald Trump's Ronald Reagan Moment 

I was at the Library of Congress working on a Middle Eastern project last week when I was called to make a live appearance on Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV studios in Washington DC. I paneled with Iranian and Kuwaiti experts on Tuesday and Friday as events unfolded about Iran’s suspected seizure of, first, a United Arab Emirates oil tanker and, later, U.K. oil tankers.

As events unfolded, it seemed more like 1979 than 2019. Revolutionaries in Iran overthrew the Shah in 1979 and Iranian “students” flooded the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held Americans hostage.

On July 16, 1980, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan accepted the GOP presidential nomination and would successfully defeat President Jimmy Carter in an election dominated by American hostages in Iran. President Reagan successfully used psychological pressure to convince Iran to release the Americans. After Reagan’s inauguration and fearful of U.S. military action, Iran released the Americans who were held captive 444 days.

Forty years later, President Donald Trump may have his Ronald Reagan moment with Iran. While Reagan was the Great Communicator, Trump is the Communicator of Maximum Pressure. Iran is feeling intense economic pressure from tough sanctions the administration implemented shortly after President Trump abandoned the disastrous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) cobbled together by the Obama/Biden administration.

Iran was never in compliance with the JCPOA’s terms, but Obama/Biden and their EU supporters were optimistic Tehran would move toward compliance. Iran never did. Further, if Obama/Biden had seriously worked with Congress to negotiate a binding treaty with Iran, it might have worked. Instead, the JCPOA was a miserable failure that only strengthened Iran’s ability to advance its nuclear arsenal and to engage in international terrorism by various means, including malicious cyberattacks against U.S. resources.

As Iran increasingly seeks to destabilize the region, President Donald Trump looks, in the eyes of the world, like the strong political leader needed at this moment. Iran presents Donald Trump with his Ronald Reagan Moment, a moment to look presidential.

Mr. Trump needs to measure his words/Tweets and prepare a convincing Maximum Pressure Message for Iran to cease aggression in the Persian Gulf. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the country’s 80-year-old Supreme leader Ali Khamenei would be wise to listen to Trump’s message and act in the interest of their nation.

In June, President Donald Trump abruptly changed his mind about a military strike on Iran. He said he was concerned about too many civilian casualties. He’s had time to think. Rouhani and Khamenei have had time as well and they foolishly chose, again, to challenge global interests by seizing oil tankers in international waters. This is a major mistake militarily and economically. Iran cannot win a war against the world and its economy cannot sustain its 82 million population with a raging war.

President Trump knows this, and he is, I believe, inclined to swift and massive action against Iran should its forces continue acts of aggression aimed to disrupt navigation in the Persian Gulf. President Trump wants the least possible economic disturbance to global economies, especially the robust U.S. economy. Iran presents President Trump with the Art of a Massive Foreign Policy Deal that could benefit the world for decades to come.

The fortieth anniversary of the Iranian Revolution is near an end. It either moves into its forty-first year or it ends now.  Iran’s fate is the hands of President Donald Trump. In 2019, Iran has more to worry about than the psychological pressures it had from Ronald Reagan in 1979.  It has an actual physical force in Donald Trump.


Jim Patterson is a life member of the American Foreign Service Association, a life member of the Auburn University Alumni Association and a member of the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations.  JEPDIplomat@gmail.com

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Bruce Laingen and Jim Patterson 1994 National Foreign Affairs Training Center

                                           Ambassador Bruce Laingen and Jim Patterson
                                           National Foreign Affairs Training Center




Ambassador Laingen (1922-2019) was an incredibly brave man and it was a great honor to have known him. He was the most senior diplomat at US Embassy Tehran when "students" overcame Embassy guards and held Americans hostage for 444 days. I highly recommend his book "Yellow Ribbon: The Secret Journal of Bruce Laingen." RIP


Jim Patterson is life member American Foreign Service Association (AFSA) and member Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. JEPDiplomat@gmail.com