Jim Patterson on Tensions in the Middle East Continue

North Korean President Kim Jong Un galloping on Mount Paektu. 

USAToday

World Series Washington and Tehran

If the Trump administration is planning a military action against Iran, then he may have been wise to avoid a troop buildup on the Syrian border and likely military confrontation with Turkey. We read about a recent U.S. cyber attack against Iran. We also read that Iran's economy has contracted about 10% due to the Trump administration's economic sanctions. Washington has sent 2,000 troops to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to guard against another damaging Iranian drone attack on Aramco's oil facilities.

President Trump considers the Iraq War a mistake even a "disaster." Much like the late French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac, President Trump thinks war is a failure and he worries about war's misery and suffering. It would be a failure of diplomacy for Trump to expand U.S. conflicts to Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Many administration critics, I was not one of them, suggested Trump was eager for a Middle East War. It would show his political base his toughness, the critics said. The Wall Street Journal and others are now suggesting Trump fears a military confrontation anywhere in the world and this could embolden military adventures of Russia, China, North Korea, and others. 

We recently saw North Korea's Chairman Kim manfully riding a galloping white stallion in the country's sacred Mount Paektu, the highest point on the Korean Peninsula. This had the Internet and professional foreign affairs analysts nervously watching Kim for other manful and possibly military actions against South Korea. A conflict with Chairman Kim could be dangerous and Trump's Kim Charm Campaign may be wilting as tensions mount in the Middle East.

Syria's Kurds and Turkey's President Recep Erdogan are a dangerous combination especially since President Trump ordered U.S. troops out of northeastern Syria. I applaud President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for finding a ceasefire between the two sides though it appears not all warring parties got prompt word of it. Shelling persisted after it was announced.

President Trump initially seemed ready to battle Capitol Hill Democrats on why they want security at the Syrian/Turkish border when they refuse to secure the U.S. Southern border with Mexico. That argument evaporated as the conflict intensified between Syrian Kurds and Turkish forces. President Trump also  argued he did not want to initiate another endless Middle East conflict since he campaigned in 2016 on an end to such wars.

President Trump might have also decided to opt out of a border dispute much like State Department officials told Iraqi President Saddam Hussein before he invaded neighboring Kuwait in the summer of 1990. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Canada, the United Kingdom and Bangladesh, liberated Kuwait in February 1991.  History seems to indicate that engaging in border disputes between nations can lead to war and ignoring border disputes can similarly lead to war. Diplomacy is the preferred course to resolve border disputes and wars they might ignite.

The Kurds are a symbolic resistance to Turkey, a NATO ally for nearly 70 years. The U.S. presence in Syria served as something of a stabilizing force. With current chaos, the U.S. has to reconsider its options.

The U.S. has two military bases with known nuclear capabilities and more than 5,000 troops in Turkey. Turkey has strong diplomatic ties with Russia and Iran and it is feared the Kurdish conflict will broaden the reach of a hostile Iran toward Israel. Strategists also fear Turkey and Iran plan to take over Syria's oil fields. Pence and Pompeo have reportedly given assurances of U.S. diplomatic and, if needed, military assistance to Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu should conditions warrant.

President Trump is working very hard to control the Turkey/Syria situation of his making, though with the noblest of intentions. I think we should know soon if Washington needs more troops to the Syrian border with Turkey. Such a move would likely indicate greater Iranian involvement.

We may be where we were in the summer with Trump and Tehran at a stalemate, but not in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. and Iran conflict many expected then may now happen in the fall. The world series may be between Houston and New York with a Washington and Tehran game getting more attention.

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Jim Patterson is a former U.S. diplomat and life member of the American Foreign Service Association.