On Meeting Futurist Alvin Toffler
I first met futurist Alvin Toffler in summer 1986 when he made a rare visit to the US Department of Commerce to dedicate a historical plaque commemorating UNIVAC I which brought the government into the Computer Age in 1951. Toffler autographed my Univac program that day; I had not brought a copy of his book.
It was a beautiful summer June day and Toffler and his wife, Heidi, spoke at the outdoor ceremony. I talked with him about his invaluable book “Future Shock” which introduced the term “information overload” in describing the impact of computers on individuals and society.
“Future Shock” was published in 1970. The Wall Street Journal called the book “Explosive … Brilliantly formulated.” The Times of India said,” To the elite … who often get committed to age-old institutions or material goals alone, let Toffler’s FUTURE SHOCK be a lesson and a warning.”
London Daily Express: “Alvin Toffler has sent something of a shock-wave through Western society.” The Christian Science Monitor said, “Packed with ideas, explanations, constructive suggestions … Revealing, exciting, encouraging, brilliant.” The Manchester Guardian wrote: “An American book that will … reshape our thinking even more radically than Galbraith’s did in the 1950s … It is a spectacular outcrop of a formidable, organized intellectual effort.”
I have kept “Future Shock” in my library since I first read it. Toffler predicted the end of “the Organizational Man,” the end of conventional offices,” and the end of narrow definitions of “professions.” It wasn’t coincidental Toffler wrote that technological advances made it easier for professionals to reach beyond their profession to use information from other disciplines to solve problems. The book is intriguing, encouraging, provoking, intellectually stimulating, and very likely, disturbing to some readers.
“The new spirit in these transient organizations is closer to that of the entrepreneur than the organization man. The free-swinging entrepreneur who started up vast enterprises unafraid of defeat or adverse opinion, is a folk hero of industrialism, particularly in the United States. Pareto labeled entrepreneurs as “not at all alarmed at change.” Was futurist Alvin Toffler in 1970s “Future Shock” suggesting the likelihood of a Donald Trump presidency?
Alvin Toffler (October 4, 1928 – June 27, 2016) was an American writer and futurist, known for his works discussing modern technologies, including the digital revolution and the communication revolution, with emphasis on their effects on cultures worldwide.
Toffler was an associate editor of Fortune magazine. In his early works he focused on technology and its impact, which he termed "information overload." In 1970 his first major book about the future, Future Shock, became a worldwide best-seller and has sold over 6 million copies.
He and his wife Heidi Toffler, who collaborated with him for most of his writings, moved on to examining the reaction to changes in society with another best-selling book, The Third Wave in 1980. In it, he foresaw such technological advances as cloning, personal computers, the Internet, cable television and mobile communication. His later focus, via their other best-seller, Powershift, (1990), was on the increasing power of 21st-century military hardware and the proliferation of new technologies.
He founded Toffler Associates, a management consulting company, and was a visiting scholar at the Russell Sage Foundation, visiting professor at Cornell University, faculty member of the New School for Social Research, a White House correspondent, and a business consultant. Toffler's ideas and writings were a significant influence on the thinking of business and government leaders worldwide, including Newt Gingrich, China's Zhao Ziyang, and AOL founder Steve Case. It is impossible to estimate Toffler’s global influence. Toffler and his work were influential to me and I am happy I had heard him speak and had a conversation with him.
Bio Page for Toffler’s 1986 Appearance at the Commerce Department
Alvin Toffler
Alvin Toffler is an author and social critic best known for his analysis of contemporary social change.
His books, including Future Shock, The Third Wave and Previews and Premises, have been published in some 30 languages around the world, from French, German, Spanish and Japanese, to Turkish, Polish, Hebrew, Arabic and Chinese. The Third Wave has been banned in Saudi Arabia. It is a bestseller in The People’s Republic of China. The Adaptive Corporation is his latest book.
His work has been awarded the Prix du Meilleur Livre Etranger in France (other winners, Alexander Solzhenitzen, Lawrence Durrell, W.H Auden).
In the United States, his work has won the McKinsey Foundation Book Award for its “Distinguished Contribution to Management Literature.” In addition, Toffler has been named Author of the Year by the America Society for Journalists and Authors for having “significantly influenced our attitudes and concepts of ourselves as an American society.”
His books are required reading in universities from the U.S. and Japan to Brazil and Zaire. They are studied by government officials around the world and have drawn public and private comment from such world leaders as Richard Nixon, Indira Ghandi, Pierre Trudeau, Ceausescu of Romania, Whitlam of Australia, Prime Minister Suzuki and former prime Minister Miki of Japan. The Third Wave was the subject of a major international television co-production.
Toffler has addressed groups in the U.S.Congress, the Japanese Diet, the British House of Commons, and may well be the only person to speak before a National Republican Governors’ Conference and a Democratic Party convention on the same day. He has also lectured before the USA-Institute of Politics at Harvard, as well as before scores of major corporations.
He holds six honorary degress( in Law, Science and Letters), serves on numerous boards, is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; a winner of the Centennial Award of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE); a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and an Officer de l’Ordre des Arts et des Sciences.
Over the years he has worked closely with his wife , Heidi, who has played an important role as collaborator and editor, and who also pursues an independent career as a lecturer.
United States Department of Commerce News Washington DC 20230 Bureau of the Census
Public Information Office James O’Brien For Immediate release CB86-0-04
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UNIVAC in action.
Census Bureau to Mark 35th Anniversary of Dawn of Computer Age; Futurist Alvin Toffler to Speak
A commemorative plaque will be dedicated at Census Bureau headquarters in Suitland, Maryland,
Saturday, June 14, to mark the bureau’s role 35 years ago as a pioneer in the computer age.
On June 14, 1951, the Census Bureau formally accepted UNIVAC I, the first general purpose data processing computer, from its manufacturer, Eckert-Mauchly Computer Corp.
Futurist writer Alvin Toffler will be the featured speaker. Author of Future Shock and The Third Wave, Toffler will speak on computers and the future. He will be introduced by Census Bureau Director John G. Keane. The ceremony will begin at 11:00 a.m.
Invited guests include Mrs. Kay Mauchly Antonelli, a computer pioneer closely involved with UNIVAC I; Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD); executives of Sperry Corp.; senior officials of the Department of Commerce, other federal agency representatives; and UNIVAC I pioneers from the Census Bureau and other organizations.
The Census Bureau helped pioneer the computer age by actively supporting the research and development that produced UNIVAC I (short for “Universal Automatic Computer”). In use from 1951 to 1963, it was retired and presented to the Smithsonian Institution where it is now in the Museum of American History.
Tours of the bureau’s current computer installations, descendants of UNIVAC I, will be conducted for guests beginning at 11:45 a.m. Demonstrations of automated equipment and modern data retrieval will also be features. The U.S. Navy Band and Navy Color Guard will participate.
A limited number of reservations for the ceremony are available by calling Miss Joanne Owen.
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June 1986 Language for the Plaque:
THE FOLLOWING IS THE TEXT OF THE PLAQUE BEING DEDICATED.
FIRST ELECTRONIC GENERAL PURPOSE DATA PROCESSING COMPUTER
THE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS DEDICATED THE WORLD’S FIRST ELECTRONIC GENERAL PURPOSE DATA PROCESSING COMPUTER, UNIVAC I, SERIAL NUMBER 001, ON JUNE 14, 1951. THE SHORTENED NAME UNIVAC WAS DERIVED FROM THE FULL NAME “UNIVERSAL AUTOMATIC COMPUTER.”
UNIVAC I WAS DESIGNED AND BUILT IN PHILADELPHIA BY THE ECKERT-MAUCHLY COMPUTER CORPORATION UNDER THE DIRECTION OF ITS CO-INVENTORS J. PRESPER ECKERT AND JOHN W. MAUCHLY.
UNIVAC I REMAINED AT THE FACTORY SITE FOR OVER A YEAR AND WAS USED THERE BY THE CENSUS BUREAU TO PROCESS PART OF THE 1950 DECENNIAL CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING. THIS ELECTRONIC MARVEL ATTRACTED WORLDWIDE ATTENTION WHEN IT BECAME THE FIRST COMPUTER USED BY TELEVISION NEWS TO PREDICT THE RESULTS OF THE 1952 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
UNIVAC I WAS EVENTUALLY MOVED FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE CENSUS BUREAU HEADQUARTERS IN SUITLAND, MARYLAND, WHERE IT LOGGED 73,500 HOURS OF OPERATION BEFORE BEING RETIRED FROM SERVICE IN 1963.
FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN THE MORE TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THIS MACHINE, UNIVAC I CONTAINED 5,400 VACUUM TUBES AND 18,00 CRYSTAL DIODES. THE COMPUTER REQUIRED 18 KILOWATTS OF ELECTRICAL POWER TO OPERATE AND WEIGHED ALMOST 15 TONS. IT’S MEMORY UNIT, WHICH WAS MADE OF ACOUSTIC DELAY LINES FILLED WITH MERCURY, COULD STORE 12,000 CHARACTERS OF PROGRAM AND DATA.
UNIVAC I HAD 10 MAGNETIC TAPE UNITS THAT READ AND WRITE ON PLATED METAL TAPE AT THE RATE OF OVER 10,000 CHARACTERS PER SECOND. AUXILIARY UNITS INCLUDED AN OPERATOR’S KEYBOARD-TO-TAPE DEVICE AND A CARD-TO-TAPE CONVERTER AS WELL AS SEVERAL PRINTING DEVICES.
PROGRAMS FOR UNIVAC I WERE WRITTEN IN MACHINE CODE, AND ALPHA-DECIMAL PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE WHICH REQUIRED NO ASSEMBLER. ITS EXECUTION SPEED WAS 2,000 INSTRUCTIONS PER SECOND.
SELECTED ARTIFACTS FROM THIS HISTORIC MACHINE ARE NOW ON DISPLAY IN THE SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION’S MUSEUM OF AMERICAN HISTORY.
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THIS MARKER WAS INSTALLED ON JUNE 14, 1986, ON THE OCCASION OF THE 35TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ORIGINAL DEDICATION OF THE FIRST UNIVAC I.
January 21 in Foreign Relations History
1977, President
Jimmy Carter pardoned nearly all Vietnam War draft evaders.
2003, the U.S.
Census Bureau reported that for the first time, the largest minority group in
the United States was Hispanics (who may be of any race).
The guillotine was
used for executions in France as recently as 1977. The death penalty was
abolished there in 1981.
"Reason therefore must be the standard by which we determine the
respective claims of revelation; for otherwise we may as well subscribe to the
divinity of the one as of the other, or to the whole of them, or to none at
all." -- Ethan Allen, "Reason: The Only Oracle of Man"
1954, the first atomic submarine, the
USS Nautilus, was launched at Groton (GRAH'-tuhn), Connecticut (however, the
Nautilus did not make its first nuclear-powered run until nearly a year later).1968, the Battle of Khe Sanh began during the Vietnam War. An American B-52 bomber carrying four hydrogen bombs crashed in Greenland, killing one crew member and scattering radioactive material.
1977, on his first full day in office, President Jimmy Carter pardoned almost all Vietnam War draft evaders.
2007 Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez told U.S. officials to "Go to hell, gringos!" and called Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "missy" on his weekly radio and TV show, lashing out at Washington for what he called unacceptable meddling in his country's affairs.
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Jim Patterson is a member of the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations and a Life Member of the American Foreign Service Association (AFSA).
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