Diplomat Jim Patterson and Global Strategist Ralph Buultjens at New York University

Diplomat Jim Patterson with Dr. Ralph Buultjens at New York University, September 2014

Dr. Buultjens, spoke on World Politics: Hot and Cold Wars,  and examined current events in order to understand today in "the longer flow of history." He noted we are in a rare historical moment of process reorientation. The current global conflicts must be seen as a balance of power context. He noted wealth and innovation have determined power among nations.
He said resentments over past human rights abuses have emboldened violent reaction from a number of world players, including Islamic State terrorists.  "The conquest of the planet," he said, "has been by whites." 84 percent of the world was white by World War I. 

 Gradually, he said, resentment grew against America due to its powerful economy, and its political and technical leadership  of the world. The lecture was given on the 13th anniversary of the September 11 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
 For the first time in 500 years, Buultjens said, the West's political strength is challenged  by an Islamic threat. He also noted the huge non-Western population in the West and mentioned jihadists may be among us. 

The situation in the Ukraine is a fight between the US and Russia, he said. "It is an effort to rearrange the power structure of the world."  This is an intense long term process with uncertainty and tensions about superpower resentment.

 Current global affairs are great disturbances with layers of complexity, complications and difficulties, he said. Things are oscillating with neither good/bad times lasting  long. He sagely stated one overriding global reality: Big fish eat little fish.

 Dr. Buultjens sees peacekeeping institutions as largely ineffective given the number of invasions in the world. He did not mention the United Nations. President Obama, he noted, has declared war on jihadism.

 At stake today is global order, a stable Middle East, the U.S. Empire, and the security of Israel. In all cases, the stakes are high, he said. 

 History is not taking place in Latin America, Africa or India but in four power centers that will determine the future of world politics in the 21st century.  

 The Middle East is collapsing, he said, due to invasions, terrorists, Arab Springs, Muslim disagreements, the ongoing and escalating Israeli/Palestinian conflict, and civil wars in Syria and Libya. These conflicts are affecting the US policy making, he said.
(Jim Note: They have rendered the US helpless.) In sum, the Persian Gulf is a snake pit, Buultjens said. The security of Israel and the threat of export of jihad ism to the US are major concerns.

 Regarding the  Israeli and Gaza conflict, the Arab neighbors are quiet. He said "99 percent of the noise" comes only from the US. 

A resolution of the Palestinian conflict would be in Israel's benefit, he feels. But the Israelis are not going to be pushed around by the Palestinians or Palestinian supporters in the US or Europe, he cautioned.
Regarding the export of jihadism to the US, Buultjens said the US cannot fight ISIS alone and needs an anti-ISIS coalition such as Britain, France, Australia, all Western allies and Saudi Arabia. No Islamic state is committed against ISIS, therefore he said, the US can't do much as it will be seen as on anti-Islamic crusade.  

 Regarding Iraq, "there we go again," he joked, pondering if we "will have to destroy it to save it." He said ISIS is less a threat, at 30,000 "troops," than was al-Qaeda.

 In Iraq the Iraqi army ran from ISIS "troops" and, he noted, the US trained the Iraqi army. He sees a growth of ISIS in the immediate future. 

He sees a growing global nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. He suggested an anti-nuclear coalition is more important than anti-ISIS coalition.

He thinks the US cannot effectively, nor economically, be policeman of the world.

He advises Obama to seriously readdress Russia "Czar" Putin. Buultjens said Putin thinks he is a czar. He declared, "PUTIN IS NOT A NICE MAN."

China's ten years of growth have been phenomenal. He said they've played off the politics of others and noted they are a net gainer in globalization with over 1 million Chinese in Africa and investment across the US. AND, he stressed, China is a friend of Israel. He declared, "China is the Superman of the 21st century."

China's future, he said, depends on 3 critical questions.

1. Can China control its freedom movement. China can't be a little bit free just like a woman can't be a little bit pregnant. Will China conform or will it be more restrictive and give the world more Tiananmen Square protests like in 1989. 
 2. China wants a bigger place in the global economy and has the potential to upset financial markets with its huge cash reserves.
3. Can China control its heartland. Border unrest could destabilize the country. US practices soft containment of China and relations need better diplomatic management. 

Managing US foreign policy today is a terrible job, the professor said. 

He pondered, "Is the US a great nation in decline?" If Greece and Rome fell, who is immune, he asked. 

In the US he sees growing discontent in society and politics. Government is unpopular with the people, he said, and they want to know why should the US be nation-building with so many problems at home, including underfunded infrastructure, services, etc. He noted foreign nationals were far better educated than US workers. 

No nation is in better position to lead the world than the US, he said. "We have the innovative minds, our energy situation has vastly improved, our population mix is the most favorable in the world, nations like to ally with the US, and the US is more open to social change than elsewhere in the world. 



Voting, Buultjens said, should be easier. "A higher voter turnout in 2000 would have elected Al Gore not George W. Bush. What a difference that would have made in world politics."

"We are at an extraordinary moment in world affairs. The US, Russia, China will impact the world for decades to come.

"In the stream of history there is crap and champagne," he said. In other words, good times and bad times are a constant.  

The lecture lasted one hour. No Q&A. Estimated audience 800.

Bio Note: Ralph Buultjens is a professor at New York University, and the former Nehru Professor/Professorial Fellow at the University of Cambridge.  He was awarded the Toynbee Prize for Social Sciences in 1984.Selected Publications:
Conceptualizing Global History (with Bruce Mazlish, 2004) 
The Destiny of freedom: Political Legacies of the Twentieth Century (Louis Nizer lecture on public policy, 1999)
Politics and History: Lessons for Today (1986) 
The Secret Life of Karl Marx (1985)

Jim Note: I enjoyed reading Conceptualizing Global History edited by Buultjens which I read while studying at Georgetown. I agreed with his arguments that historical awareness was vitally needed as we move into a global era. The book was dedicated to global history to inform and direct policy.

Rational for a historical approach to policy is based on a series of developments including global environmental problems (climate change), nuclear threats, multinational trade and economic activity, and rapid technological advances. The new millennium will bring new challenges and a sophisticated global history methodologically to contemporary challenges can benefit policymakers and society.