Ambassador Bruce Laingen (1922-2019), the senior US diplomat at US Embassy Tehran 1979 when Iranian "students" seized the Embassy and held Americans, including Laingen, hostage 444 days. I was honored to have known him and to have learned from his experience.
Donald Trump's Ronald Reagan Moment
I was at the Library of Congress working on a Middle Eastern project last week when I was called to make a live appearance on Qatar’s Al
Jazeera TV studios in Washington DC. I paneled with Iranian and Kuwaiti experts
on Tuesday and Friday as events unfolded about Iran’s suspected seizure of,
first, a United Arab Emirates oil tanker and, later, U.K. oil tankers.
As events unfolded, it seemed more like 1979 than 2019. Revolutionaries
in Iran overthrew the Shah in 1979 and Iranian “students” flooded the U.S. Embassy
in Tehran and held Americans hostage.
On July 16, 1980, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan accepted
the GOP presidential nomination and would successfully defeat President Jimmy
Carter in an election dominated by American hostages in Iran. President Reagan successfully
used psychological pressure to convince Iran to release the Americans. After
Reagan’s inauguration and fearful of U.S. military action, Iran released the
Americans who were held captive 444 days.
Forty years later, President Donald Trump may have his
Ronald Reagan moment with Iran. While Reagan was the Great Communicator, Trump
is the Communicator of Maximum Pressure. Iran is feeling intense economic
pressure from tough sanctions the administration implemented shortly after
President Trump abandoned the disastrous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) cobbled together by the Obama/Biden administration.
Iran was never in compliance with the JCPOA’s terms, but
Obama/Biden and their EU supporters were optimistic Tehran would move toward compliance.
Iran never did. Further, if Obama/Biden had seriously worked with Congress to
negotiate a binding treaty with Iran, it might have worked. Instead, the JCPOA
was a miserable failure that only strengthened Iran’s ability to advance its
nuclear arsenal and to engage in international terrorism by various means,
including malicious cyberattacks against U.S. resources.
As Iran increasingly seeks to destabilize the region,
President Donald Trump looks, in the eyes of the world, like the strong
political leader needed at this moment. Iran presents Donald Trump with his
Ronald Reagan Moment, a moment to look presidential.
Mr. Trump needs to measure his words/Tweets and prepare
a convincing Maximum Pressure Message for Iran to cease aggression in the Persian
Gulf. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the country’s 80-year-old Supreme leader Ali Khamenei would be wise to listen to Trump’s message and act
in the interest of their nation.
In June, President Donald Trump abruptly changed his
mind about a military strike on Iran. He said he was concerned about too many
civilian casualties. He’s had time to think. Rouhani and Khamenei have had time
as well and they foolishly chose, again, to challenge global interests by
seizing oil tankers in international waters. This is a major mistake militarily
and economically. Iran cannot win a war against the world and its economy cannot
sustain its 82 million population with a raging war.
President Trump knows this, and he is, I believe, inclined
to swift and massive action against Iran should its forces continue acts of
aggression aimed to disrupt navigation in the Persian Gulf. President Trump wants
the least possible economic disturbance to global economies, especially the
robust U.S. economy. Iran presents President Trump with the Art of a Massive Foreign
Policy Deal that could benefit the world for decades to come.
The fortieth anniversary of the Iranian Revolution is
near an end. It either moves into its forty-first year or it ends now. Iran’s fate is the hands of President Donald Trump.
In 2019, Iran has more to worry about than the psychological pressures it had from
Ronald Reagan in 1979. It has an actual physical
force in Donald Trump.
